I actually get asked this a lot by Iranian friends in the diaspora. Of course, the protestors have every reason to be outraged. But the regime being as willing as it is to use force to quell the protests, I'm afraid these demonstrations will not achieve much. What would bring the regime down is a wide spread strike, particularly of public sector workers, similar to the one toppled the Pahlavi regime.
Unfortunately, the precarious financial situation that many people in Iran find themselves in means that participating in a strike would entail an immense material risk to themselves and their families. They are unlikely to take such a risk for principle alone. They would need to feel that safety or security is at stake.
Even worse, it is unlikely that the long term outlook in Iran would meaningfully improve after a regime change. The economy has been mismanaged for decades and corruption is the norm. The country has no friends left in the world and it is surrounded by geopolitical rivals and countries that hold historical grudges against it. The most important issue, though, is that, after having had their fill of theocracy, many prominent Iranian thinkers are gunning for a liberal democracy to take its place. But the Iranian people are not a liberal people, and a sizeable majority still put huge emphasis on Islamic values that are incompatible with liberal culture.
I am curious as to your thoughts about the current unrest within Iran
I actually get asked this a lot by Iranian friends in the diaspora. Of course, the protestors have every reason to be outraged. But the regime being as willing as it is to use force to quell the protests, I'm afraid these demonstrations will not achieve much. What would bring the regime down is a wide spread strike, particularly of public sector workers, similar to the one toppled the Pahlavi regime.
Unfortunately, the precarious financial situation that many people in Iran find themselves in means that participating in a strike would entail an immense material risk to themselves and their families. They are unlikely to take such a risk for principle alone. They would need to feel that safety or security is at stake.
Even worse, it is unlikely that the long term outlook in Iran would meaningfully improve after a regime change. The economy has been mismanaged for decades and corruption is the norm. The country has no friends left in the world and it is surrounded by geopolitical rivals and countries that hold historical grudges against it. The most important issue, though, is that, after having had their fill of theocracy, many prominent Iranian thinkers are gunning for a liberal democracy to take its place. But the Iranian people are not a liberal people, and a sizeable majority still put huge emphasis on Islamic values that are incompatible with liberal culture.